Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide

Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.     

The role of peer imitation in agricultural index insurance adoption: Findings from lab-in-the-field experiments in Kyrgyzstan

Frequent climate shocks require farmers in developing countries to increase their resilience. Although index insurance is often discussed as a promising climate adaptation strategy, take-up rates are still low. This study primarily explores the role of peer behavior as peer imitation in the demand for three marketable and unsubsidized crop index insurance options. Furthermore, the influence of trust and understanding is investigated. We collected data in lab-in-the-field experiments among farmers in Kyrgyzstan, where index insurance is planned for imminent implementation. Applying ordered logit estimations, our results show significant and strong peer imitation effects. Imitation attitudes decrease with own insurance experience and received insurance payouts, but intensify with peer size, insurance trust and practical insurance understanding. While trust robustly increases index insurance adoption, understanding effects only gain significance in the dynamic perspective. These findings underline the importance of community-based extension treatments and trust toward the uptake of innovative agricultural technologies in the first steps of dissemination.     

Sudden stops in a currency union – some lessons from the euro area

During the Great Financial Crisis several euro area Member States with current account deficits were subject to sharp reversals of private capital flows. We examine how the specific policy rules of the euro area's payments system TARGET2 affects the macroeconomic adjustments to sudden stops. We find that – in the short run – public capital flows in form of TARGET2 help euro area‐deficit countries to stabilize output, consumption, and investment after a sudden stop of private capital inflows. In the long run, however, euro area countries suffer under a prolonged economic recovery and accumulated large public debt as well as higher welfare losses relative to euro peggers.     

Framing the constructive alignment of design within technology subjects in general education

Design is core element of general technology education internationally. While there is a degree of contention with regards to its treatment, there is general consensus that the inclusion of design in some form is important, if not characteristic, of the subject area. Acknowledging that design is important, there are many questions which need to be considered in order to guide policy and practice, such as whether a singular general design ability can be explicitly defined empirically beyond an implicit verbal definition, and whether it can be taught and assessed. In order to address these questions in a systematic fashion, a framework is needed in order to guide relevant investigations. Having such a framework would allow for theory to be generated, hypotheses to be tested, and assumptions to be challenged. In response to this apparent need, this article presents a theoretical discussion pertaining to the constructive alignment of learning to design, wherein theories of knowledge, variation theory, knowledge transfer, and assessment validity and reliability are reflected upon.

     

Ethics of AI-Enabled Recruiting and Selection: A Review and Research Agenda

Journal of Business Ethics - Companies increasingly deploy artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in their personnel recruiting and selection process to streamline it, making it faster and more...     

Science and proven experience: a Swedish variety of evidence-based medicine and a way to better risk analysis?

A key question for evidence-based medicine (EBM) is how best to model the way in which EBM should ‘[integrate] individual clinical expertise and the best external evidence’. We argue that the formulations and models available in the literature today are modest variations on a common theme and face very similar problems when it comes to risk analysis, which is here understood as a decision procedure comprising a factual assessment of risk, the risk assessment, and the decision what to do based on this assessment, the risk management. Both the early and updated models of evidence-based clinical decisions presented in the writings of Haynes, Devereaux and Guyatt assume that EBM consists of, among other things, evidence from clinical research together with information about patients’ values and clinical expertise. On this A-view, EBM describes all that goes on in a specific justifiable medical decision. There is, however, an alternative interpretation of EBM, the B-view, in which EBM describes just one component of the decision situation (a component usually based on evidence from clinical research) and in which, together with other types of evidence, EBM leads to a justifiable clincial decision but does not describe the decision itself. This B-view is inspired by a 100-years older version of EBM, a Swedish standard requiring medical decision-making, professional risk-taking and practice to be in accordance with ‘science and proven experience’ (VBE). In the paper, we outline how the Swedish concept leads to an improved understanding of the way in which scientific evidence and clinical experience can and cannot be integrated in light of EBM. How scientific evidence and clinical experience is integrated influences both the way we do risk assessment and risk management. In addition, the paper sketches the as yet unexplored historical background to VBE and EBM.     

Perspectives of children with disabilities and their guardians on factors affecting inclusion in education in rural Nepal: “I feel sad that I can’t go to school”

Globally, children with disabilities are significantly less likely to attend school compared to their peers without disabilities and, even if they do attend, have poorer educational outcomes. In order to understand why these inequalities persist, this study explores the barriers and enablers to accessing education. We focus on the perspectives of guardians and children with disabilities – voices that have thus far been underrepresented – complemented by perspectives from local and national level stakeholders. Data was collected in three rural districts in Nepal, using semi-structured interviews; data was analysed thematically. Overall, the research found that challenges to inclusion are complex, involving a mixture of individual, family, school, community and policy level factors. Notable barriers were attitudes towards education for children with disabilities, the low capacity of schools to provide an inclusive education, as well as the interplay of additional ‘push factors’ such as poor health and poverty.     

Imperfect Information and Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata

This paper explores which factors trigger an adjustment in consumers’ inflation expectations and looks at the implications regarding forecast errors. We find support for imperfect information models, as inflation volatility and news trigger an adjustment in expectations. Furthermore, we document that individual expectations become more accurate if they have been adjusted.     

The Energy Paradox Revisited: Analyzing the Role of Individual Differences and Framing Effects in Information Perception

In the ongoing debate about the “energy paradox”, a recent stream of literature highlights the importance of behavioural anomalies such as bounded rationality and self-control problems. However, the role of individual-level factors in explaining the energy paradox is still not fully understood. Combining literature on behavioural anomalies and consumer heterogeneity, the current paper analyses how individual differences influence the perception of energy-related information and susceptibility to choice-framing effects. A choice-based conjoint experiment about energy-saving home improvements was conducted with 363 homeowners in Switzerland. Results show that numeracy and energy literacy have no influence on how much attention individuals pay to energy cost savings. However, impulsivity and risk aversion are found to significantly impact homeowners’ weighting of future energy cost savings. Further, it is found that impulsive homeowners are significantly more susceptible to energy cost-framing effects. A key implication for consumer policy is that general educational programs targeted at enhancing citizens’ knowledge and cognitive abilities are unlikely to increase energy conservation investments. The findings further suggest that consumer policies and business models aimed at reducing impulsiveness and influencing risk perception might foster the uptake of energy-saving measures in the residential housing sector.     

Sustainable Branding — mehr als ein neues Schlagwort?!

In der Markenführung l?sst sich derzeitig ein bemerkenswerter Trend zur Nachhaltigkeit beobachten. Im Mittelpunkt der Diskussion stehen Fragen, inwiefern Nachhaltigkeitsaspekte in der Marke verankert werden sollten und ob Sustainable Branding mehr als ein neues Schlagwort darstellt. Nachhaltigkeit war Prof. Dr. Dr. Helmut Sihler als ehemaligem Vorstandsvorsitzenden von Henkel immer ein besonderes Anliegen. Dieser Beitrag sei ihm daher aus Anlass seines 80. Geburtstages gewidmet.